IBD says the "Uptrend is Under Pressure". We now have 5 distribution days on the NASDAQ and 3 for the S&P 500. Several oscillators I follow show we're getting oversold. I'm going through my charts tonight and not finding any high quality setups. I'm still holding onto my Facebook ($FB) position, which has a slight profit and Gilead ($GILD), as well, with a little loss. Neither stock has flashed any sell signals. These stocks are leaders and are part of my longer term portfolio. For these positions, a break of the 50 DMA may be my exit point. I want to add Apple $AAPL to my portfolio, but I think it might have a pullback before a move higher because there's just not enough volume to convince me it wants to go higher.
Despite the negative sentiment out there, my oversold oscillators, some seasonality factors affecting stocks, etc., I do see a bright side. All this could be leading to a tradable rally, at least in the indices. With the $SPY, we are just shy of the 50 DMA. We've crossed below it previously for a couple of weeks and then we blasted up towards new highs. I'm not saying the same exact thing will happen, but it has been the pattern for a while.
The $QQQ is also closer to the 50 DMA. This past year it broke below the 50 DMA in January/February, then again in March/April/May. Each dip was bought and the $QQQ kept grinding higher. Again, I'm not saying to expect a repeat, but be ready.
The $IWM is getting closer to some key levels. It has been essentially trading inside a range for most the year. It has provided nimble traders opportunities to get in and out with some decent profits. $IWM could be setting up for another bounce here as we get closer to the 107-109 zone. However, judging from the momentum indicator, if it does bounce it may only make it up the50 DMA, which may become a strong area of resistance.
So, without any high-quality stock setups, my focus is on the $TQQQ and the $TNA, not so much $UPRO. $TQQQ returned around 50% from the low in October 2013 through the end of the year. $TNA returned around 37% during the same time period. Again, I'm not saying there's a repeat, but a possible rhyme
Tuesday, September 23, 2014
Saturday, September 20, 2014
It was a very volatile week with all the news events clustered together, but once I remove the noise I was able to find a gem (hopefully). I played biotechs before without much luck. I was about to write them off, when Gilead caught my attention. Here's the video...
Tuesday, September 16, 2014
Monday, September 15, 2014
I apologize for the late video, but if you follow me on Twitter @ArizonaTrader, you''ll see my real time (or almost real time buys/sells). So, $UBNT was looking sweet after Thursdays breakout. However, things turned sour after Friday's breakout failure. And now the video...
Sunday, September 14, 2014
Despite the pullback in the major markets and distribution days mounting, lots of names are setting up for plays in the coming weeks. Most are pullbacks from recent highs, one setup is in a basing pattern. There are a few others that didn't make it to the video.I tweet all my trades in almost real time via Twitter so follow me @ArizonaTrader and subscribe to my blog posts. And now the video...
Wednesday, September 10, 2014
I finally sold out of my Salix position. It violated my first line of support yesterday and broke the 21 EMA today. Volume to the downside was accelerating so I sold an hour and a half before the close. Meanwhile, $JAZZ was doing well and the $IBB sector ETF was doing well. The character of Salix had changed and I decided to exit with a -6.5 loss to the portfolio. Here's the video...
Monday, September 8, 2014
Facebook ($FB) is one of those stocks that everyone loves to talk about. You either hate it or you love it. Or if you're a trader, you couldn't care less about other opinions and buy it to make some m money. I am amazed that so many people hate this stock and are actually shorting it. It's up over 100% over the last 12 months and people now believe it can't go any higher. They have no basis for their decision, they just have that opinion. I guess we'll see who's right. I'm one of those traders, by the way, who cares more for the money than for opinions, and here's the video explaining my entries